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The Australian dollar wallowed below 75 US cents on Monday, despite evidence of stronger inflation, with investors still expecting interest rates to remain on hold in 2006, eroding the currency's yield advantage.

The US dollar has found solid support in recent weeks from Federal Reserve officials talking up the prospect of ongoing US interest rate rises.

"Aussie continues to quietly fade away," said Robert Rennie, chief currency strategist at Westpac.

"The bill market is probably pricing it correctly, pricing in a modest possibility of rate hikes further down the track. And between now and then we know the Fed will have raised interest rates many times and that New Zealand may have raised rates at least once and possibly more," Rennie said.

One Aussie dollar fetched $0.7488/90 compared with $0.7511/12 late here on Friday. It traded a tight $0.7468-$0.7489 range on Monday.

Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.5 percent in the September quarter, above expectations for a rise of 1.3 percent and rose 3.4 percent compared with a year earlier.

The quarterly rise in producer prices was the strongest since the June quarter of 2001, but those higher costs were not necessarily passed on to consumers.

September-quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday will complete the picture, but is not expected to spark a sudden rate rise, even if inflation tops the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2-to-3 percent target range.

At most, the RBA might reinstate a tightening bias in its next quarterly policy statement, due on November 7, economists said.

Market expectations for CPI centre on a rise of 1.1 percent in the quarter, for an annual rate of 3.1 percent - the strongest in two-and-a-half years.

"Inflation is running at or above the top end of the RBA target range and is likely to remain elevated for some time," said Stephen Koukoulas, chief strategist, Asia Pacific, at TD Securities.

"Only a huge downside surprise on CPI inflation on Wednesday would see the RBA hold a more neutral bias when it comes to its Statement on Monetary Policy in two weeks' time," he said.

The Aussie dollar is expected to hold in a $0.7450-$0.7550 range in the lead up to Wednesday's inflation data. Beyond that, it could fade but was not expected to threaten the year low of $0.7365, struck on July 7.

Copyright Reuters, 2005


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